Everyday Homicides in Mexico Drop 37% Under the Sheinbaum Administration, As per Government Statistics

The average number of daily homicides per month in Mexico has dropped by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per fresh government statistics. But, security experts have warned that homicide data could fail to point to better national safety.

Notable Decline in Per-Day Numbers

There was an average of close to 55 murders a day in last November versus nearly 87 when Sheinbaum began the leadership in September. This information was provided by the chief of the country’s national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The figures in homicides that we have seen in these months is very important,” the President remarked, noting that last month the smallest amount of murders were documented for any single November in the past decade.

Recent Context and Official Strategy

Violent drug cartel rivalries, coupled with the government’s highly militarised efforts to confront the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in the past few years. The rate reached a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the nation's national statistics office.

That gave Mexico a homicide figure more than four times higher than the United States. Since then, murders have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 the previous year. The President has linked her public safety approach for an ostensibly sharper decline in homicides this year.

At a news briefing in August, the head of state declared: “We have a plan, we have tracking of the strategy, and there is specific monitoring municipality by municipality in some cases. The plan works. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The main components of Sheinbaum’s safety plan involve:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s federal guard.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigation efforts.
• Increased coordination between government agencies.

Expert Warnings and Statistical Limitations

However, security analysts cautioned that focusing solely on homicide numbers to paint a picture of improved security was problematic. This is particularly true considering the rise in different crimes such as abductions.

“That would be positive news if this were a drop, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the murder numbers and say: ‘Alright, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican cartels. “I would be guardedly positive.”

According to the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, murders overall declined by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year versus the same timeframe last year. However, disappearances have risen by 15% and in certain states have increased by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on murders is no longer useful for assessing the context of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the ability or the inclination to properly recognize and classify bodies. Second, organised [criminals] … have the capability to mask violence through disappearances.”

Vargas added that using month-to-month averages of everyday killings was also an issue because it may hide days when there were notably high levels of murders.

“Using the per-day mean renders surges of violent crime invisible,” he said.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Success

An area where the administration can point to the success of its security plan is on arrests and confiscations. Almost 40,000 suspects were detained between last October and this past November for high-impact crimes, per government data. More than 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tonnes of narcotics confiscated.

“Donald Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s very politically profitable,” said Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Public Frustration

Yet notwithstanding these measures, Mexico continues to be beset by extreme bloodshed, with multiple regions in the throes of cartel-fueled conflict. In the previous month there was a prominent killing of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the past year.

A short time later, thousands of protesters protested in Mexico City and throughout the country to show their outrage at corruption and narco-violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a way to create a narrative of safety. Politically it’s extremely potent, socially it’s very problematic,” the analyst said.